Battleground State History and Conjecture

Pennsylvania
John McCain has, pretty much, pinned his hopes on Pennsylvania, there is almost no path to 270 for him without it.

Pennsylvania has voted Democrat for the last four elections, but the state's blue-collar Democrats have shown a lack of enthusiasm for Obama in the primary. McCain has fought hard to exploit this weakness but has trailed in the polls by double-digits since mid-September.

Pennsylvania voted Republican only when the entire country was doing so, except when they chose Dewey over Truman in 1948.

McCain's chances of pulling off an upset here are slim to none and, I believe, should be contested and investigated if it happens.

New Hampshire
New Hampshire chose Nixon over Kennedy in 1960 and they voted for G.W. in 2000, but they wanted him out in 2004 ~ hopefully they have learned their lesson and will favor Obama in 2008. Polls were within margin of error until early October, since then Obama has a consistent and wide lead. I am counting on New Hampshire to keep all of New England Blue.

Virginia
Virginia has only gone Democrat once since 1952, when it voted for Lyndon Johnson in 1964. It is another state that chose Nixon over Kennedy. Virginia has voted Republican without interruption in the last ten elections.

However in the "communist ~ not real" Virginia there is a large African-American population and a large suburban Washington, D.C. population. This gives Obama a real chance in Virginia, polling since early October has favored Obama by a wide, but mostly single-digit, margin.

I have a hard time counting on a state that chose Nixon over Kennedy to help put Obama in the White House.

Ohio
Ohio voted for Bush by slim margins in 2000 (+3.5%) and 2004 (+2.1%). The Ohio vote determined the outcome of 2004, if Bush had lost Ohio then Kerry would be President now.

Ohio's Democrats went for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in the primaries, and McCain has led in Ohio polls, but Obama has opened an increasing lead since the recent economic crisis.

Unfortunately, Obama's lead has narrowed in Ohio over the last week, or so. This is, most likely, due to the exploitation of Joe the Plumber, lies about the coal industry, divisive racism and various other Rovian tactics. Is Ohio stupid enough to make their decision based on a non-plumber, turned celebrity?

Ohio has only once failed to elect the winner since the 1944 election when it chose Nixon over Kennedy in 1960. Any state that produces a Joe the Plumber icon and chose Nixon over Kennedy has me a little worried about Obama's chances in that state.

Florida
The last four elections were resolved by narrow margins, the closest being the 2000 race, when George W. Bush (with a little help from his family and friends) beat Al Gore by .1 per cent. Polls have had McCain ahead for just about the entire campaign, although Obama has a narrow lead for most of the time since the beginning of October.

Florida has only once in the last ten elections not voted for the next President. Since Florida chose George H. W. Bush over Bill Clinton in 1992, and Nixon over Kennedy in 1960, it should not surprise or worry you if Obama loses Florida to John McCain.

North Carolina
North Carolina will, most likely, be closer than Ohio and Florida. it voted against Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. But North Carolina has strong Democratic roots and voted Democratic 6 times in a row from 1944 through 1964. The only time that North Carolina has voted Democrat since 1964 is when they voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976. There is a strong progressive population in some parts, large African-American population in others and very large bible belt, fundamentalists in much of the rest of the state. Obama has a very slim lead in the polls but has a shot in North Carolina, they are not one of the states that helped put Nixon in the White house in 1960.

Indiana
Don't pin any of Obama's hopes here, apart from voting for a Democrat in 1964, when only six states voted Republican, Indiana last chose a Democrat in 1936, when only two states voted Republican. Indiana is a very Red state. Obama's chances in Indiana are that, overall, they don't seem to really like either candidate and they are right next to Obama's home state of Illinois. Their proximity to Obama's home state could allow some of the Illinois enthusiasm to spill over and affect the outcome.

McCain has consistently led in the polls, but the margin has narrowed constantly since the beginning of October.

Tennessee and Georgia
Will the Democratic population in Atlanta, Memphis, Chattanooga and Nashville be enough to out-vote rural areas to turn Tennessee and Georgia for Obama, I don't think so but I do hope so.

Arizona
Poll margins are down to an almost imperceptible lead in Arizona, I believe his slimy campaigning has shamed them. John McCain's home state might still vote him into office just to delay his return to Arizona.

Alaska
Palin started out as the most popular governor in the country, but approval has waned significantly in her home state. There are more "-gates" than can be counted and many of her remaining supporters will likely also be voting for convicted felon, Ted Stevens, for the senate. Alaska will probably not swing for Obama, but it will be a lot closer than it should have been.

Final Tally
Look for Obama to win between 273 and 364 electoral votes and John McCain between 128 and 174. What I am really hoping for is Obama 403, McCain 135.

The Real "Threat to Democracy": GOP Voter Suppression and Fraud

One thing that we have learned in this election is that whatever smears and allegations of deceit, fraud or illegal activity you hear from a Republican is a smoke screen to cover up something that they have already done, are doing, or plan to do soon.

One of the best examples is the ACORN, voter registration fraud smokescreen to cover up the GOP voter suppression and voter fraud schemes.
read about the voter fraud myth here...

Contrary to Sen. McCain's assertions, the real thing that is "destroying the fabric of democracy" is the GOP itself. Republicans have diverted attention from their own voter suppression and fraud tactics with their charges against ACORN's alleged voter registration fraud. It should be noted that, even if the voter registration fraud allegations were true (which they have proven not to be), it is extremely unlikely that it would lead to any significant voter fraud. It is the GOP, in concert with the McCain campaign, that is "perpetrating one of the greatest frauds in voter history in this country". (See how we can use their attacks to figure out what they've done, are doing, or are about to do?)
read about one case of actual voter fraud, and how the victims took their vote back here...

It is the Republicans that are mounting efforts to steal the vote from hundreds of thousands of legitimate voters, a genuine threat that has received almost no media attention. They're stealing your vote, but you can steal it back.

Here are some steps you should take to protect your vote. First, avoid the November 4th minefield. Voters, wherever possible, should vote early and in person. Where feasible, avoid mailing in your ballot, many are rejected for flimsy reasons, and first time voters in many states must include a photocopy of ID. However, if you have a mail-in ballot, don't throw it away. Follow directions, use the correct postage (that's an error that cost a hundred thousand votes last time) and, if possible, walk it in to your elections office.

At the polling station, should you find yourself one of the 2.7 million purged, or your ID rejected, then do your best to resist a "provisional" ballot--one third of which are not counted. Return with proper ID, or call 1-800-OUR VOTE for legal assistance (take this phone number with you to the polls). And never just walk away discouraged. That's just what they want you to do.

read complete Rolling Stone article here...
watch the video here...


We will continue to update with specific examples, if you know of any please email us submissions(at)bachmanneffect.com
DENVER — About 6,400 new voters in Colorado may not be allowed to cast regular ballots on Election Day because they failed to check a box on a voter registration form.

ALBUQUERQUE – Republican Party attorney Pat Rogers refused to say Thursday if a private detective who visited the addresses of two of the 10 Albuquerque voters cited at a news conference last week about voter fraud was working for the GOP.

ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- College senior Kyla Berry was looking forward to voting in her first presidential election, even carrying her voter registration card in her wallet. But about two weeks ago, Berry got disturbing news from local election officials. "This office has received notification from the state of Georgia indicating that you are not a citizen of the United States and therefore, not eligible to vote," a letter from the Fulton County Department of Registration and Elections said. But Berry is a U.S. citizen, born in Boston, Massachusetts. She has a passport and a birth certificate to prove it.

Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least six swing states have been removed from the rolls or have been blocked from registering in ways that appear to violate federal law, according to a review of state records and Social Security data by The New York Times.



See another article about this subject on Mudflats, which includes a great ACORN video.

Last day of early voting in Tennessee is 10/30/2008.

Poll Closing Times (as far as we know, verify with your local polling station)

• 6PM (ET): Indiana, Kentucky
• 7PM: Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
• 7:30PM: Ohio, West Virginia
• 8:00PM: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee
• 8:30PM: Arkansas, North Carolina
• 9:00PM: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
• 10:00PM: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah
• 11:00PM: California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington
• 12:00AM: Alaska

Totally Unapologetic Response Received From WFTV, FL

No apology, just more Republican talking points, along with some of their own. In John McCain's words, "blah, blah, blah"...
see information in Update 1

Florida WFTV anchor Barbara West Makes FoxNews Actually Look Fair and Balanced

Watch this ridiculous excuse for a news anchor interviewing Joe Biden. We had to make a new category just for her: ludicrous insanity. She digs with John McCain's talking points and lies in a way that is absolutely shameful. Joe Biden was absolutely masterful.



Watch her softball John McCain in a way that is more like a job interview for press secretary than any form of journalism.

Send a complaint to her general manager now. Here's the link to the contact form: http://www.wftv.com/contact/

Look for the checkbox "WFTV/WRDQ General Manager" (the 5th one down on the contact form). If you prefer to call, the news director's name is Bob Jordan 407-841-9000. If the offices are closed, dial 8 after the message for the station directory, enter Jordan Bob (567326262) to be put through to an operator, tell them you want to leave a message for Bob Jordan on his voice mail.

Here's what we sent, to help get you started:

Dear WFTV Gen. Mgr. - I have just watched the videos, online, of the interviews your Barbara West conducted - one with Sen. John McCain and one with Sen. Joe Biden. With all due respect, [add your own comments here]

Update 1, 28 October, 2008
We received this response from WFTV today:

From: "Eyewitness News (CTV-Orlando)"
To: redacted
Date: Tue, 28 Oct 2008 08:31:51 -0400
Subject: Web Form Submission Response
Dear Viewer:

Thank you for taking time to contact us regarding Barbara West's recent interview with democratic Vice Presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden.

The Obama campaign contacted us last week offering Senator Biden, via satellite, for a short interview. Barbara West, one of our most experienced anchors, was asked to interview Senator Biden, just as she had been on previous occasions.

It is our goal at Eyewitness News when interviewing any political candidate or public official to ask them a direct question about an issue currently in the public debate. Last week, when much of the political discourse centered on Senator Obama's statement to 'Joe the Plumber' that he thought 'sharing the wealth' was a good idea, Barbara decided to ask Senator Biden just how far an Obama-Biden administration would go in 'sharing the wealth'. What followed was very pointed, provocative question. We allowed Senator Biden to answer, fully unedited.

We tell our reporters and news anchors to ask the questions that one of our viewers might ask. For example, when Senator Obama visited Lakeland recently, Barbara (knowing her time with a presidential candidate would be limited) asked Senator Obama two questions: first, about drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico; and, second, about his position on the space program. The Senator's answers dominated the news cycle for the next day.

You can see all of Barbara's interviews with political candidates at WFTV.com including one she just did Monday with Senator John McCain.

Perhaps more than any other presidential election in recent memory, this current election has stirred passions - some of them quite partisan - in many people. Through it all, we believe our mission is to address vital issues that we will face together, regardless of our own personal views with thorough, even handed reporting.

Again, thank you for taking the time to contact us.

Barbara West's husband, Wade West, is a Republican political strategist. Here's an excerpt from his SolgamesUSA company website (his political and media consulting company website now gives a "Forbidden" error):

His media communication and fundraising skills have made him a popular consultant for political candidates ranging from local elections, to more than 85 [Republication] members of Congress and members of the President’s [Bush] cabinet.

Here's an excerpt from Barbara West's bio on the WFTV website:

I am married to Wade West, an international media consultant to politicians, professionals and organizations. Together we often serve as auctioneers at various fundraising events throughout the state.

The fact that West's husband is a [Republican] political strategist, and that there was no mention of this, nor even a hint of an apology, in their response indicates to us that WFTV "News" are also Republican political strategists. At the very least, they believe that the fact that they interviewed John McCain as well as Joe Biden means that they are fair and balanced journalists. The antagonistic nature of the questions to one vs. the softball nature of the questions to the other is not relevant to them.

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