Battleground State History and Conjecture

Pennsylvania
John McCain has, pretty much, pinned his hopes on Pennsylvania, there is almost no path to 270 for him without it.

Pennsylvania has voted Democrat for the last four elections, but the state's blue-collar Democrats have shown a lack of enthusiasm for Obama in the primary. McCain has fought hard to exploit this weakness but has trailed in the polls by double-digits since mid-September.

Pennsylvania voted Republican only when the entire country was doing so, except when they chose Dewey over Truman in 1948.

McCain's chances of pulling off an upset here are slim to none and, I believe, should be contested and investigated if it happens.

New Hampshire
New Hampshire chose Nixon over Kennedy in 1960 and they voted for G.W. in 2000, but they wanted him out in 2004 ~ hopefully they have learned their lesson and will favor Obama in 2008. Polls were within margin of error until early October, since then Obama has a consistent and wide lead. I am counting on New Hampshire to keep all of New England Blue.

Virginia
Virginia has only gone Democrat once since 1952, when it voted for Lyndon Johnson in 1964. It is another state that chose Nixon over Kennedy. Virginia has voted Republican without interruption in the last ten elections.

However in the "communist ~ not real" Virginia there is a large African-American population and a large suburban Washington, D.C. population. This gives Obama a real chance in Virginia, polling since early October has favored Obama by a wide, but mostly single-digit, margin.

I have a hard time counting on a state that chose Nixon over Kennedy to help put Obama in the White House.

Ohio
Ohio voted for Bush by slim margins in 2000 (+3.5%) and 2004 (+2.1%). The Ohio vote determined the outcome of 2004, if Bush had lost Ohio then Kerry would be President now.

Ohio's Democrats went for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in the primaries, and McCain has led in Ohio polls, but Obama has opened an increasing lead since the recent economic crisis.

Unfortunately, Obama's lead has narrowed in Ohio over the last week, or so. This is, most likely, due to the exploitation of Joe the Plumber, lies about the coal industry, divisive racism and various other Rovian tactics. Is Ohio stupid enough to make their decision based on a non-plumber, turned celebrity?

Ohio has only once failed to elect the winner since the 1944 election when it chose Nixon over Kennedy in 1960. Any state that produces a Joe the Plumber icon and chose Nixon over Kennedy has me a little worried about Obama's chances in that state.

Florida
The last four elections were resolved by narrow margins, the closest being the 2000 race, when George W. Bush (with a little help from his family and friends) beat Al Gore by .1 per cent. Polls have had McCain ahead for just about the entire campaign, although Obama has a narrow lead for most of the time since the beginning of October.

Florida has only once in the last ten elections not voted for the next President. Since Florida chose George H. W. Bush over Bill Clinton in 1992, and Nixon over Kennedy in 1960, it should not surprise or worry you if Obama loses Florida to John McCain.

North Carolina
North Carolina will, most likely, be closer than Ohio and Florida. it voted against Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. But North Carolina has strong Democratic roots and voted Democratic 6 times in a row from 1944 through 1964. The only time that North Carolina has voted Democrat since 1964 is when they voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976. There is a strong progressive population in some parts, large African-American population in others and very large bible belt, fundamentalists in much of the rest of the state. Obama has a very slim lead in the polls but has a shot in North Carolina, they are not one of the states that helped put Nixon in the White house in 1960.

Indiana
Don't pin any of Obama's hopes here, apart from voting for a Democrat in 1964, when only six states voted Republican, Indiana last chose a Democrat in 1936, when only two states voted Republican. Indiana is a very Red state. Obama's chances in Indiana are that, overall, they don't seem to really like either candidate and they are right next to Obama's home state of Illinois. Their proximity to Obama's home state could allow some of the Illinois enthusiasm to spill over and affect the outcome.

McCain has consistently led in the polls, but the margin has narrowed constantly since the beginning of October.

Tennessee and Georgia
Will the Democratic population in Atlanta, Memphis, Chattanooga and Nashville be enough to out-vote rural areas to turn Tennessee and Georgia for Obama, I don't think so but I do hope so.

Arizona
Poll margins are down to an almost imperceptible lead in Arizona, I believe his slimy campaigning has shamed them. John McCain's home state might still vote him into office just to delay his return to Arizona.

Alaska
Palin started out as the most popular governor in the country, but approval has waned significantly in her home state. There are more "-gates" than can be counted and many of her remaining supporters will likely also be voting for convicted felon, Ted Stevens, for the senate. Alaska will probably not swing for Obama, but it will be a lot closer than it should have been.

Final Tally
Look for Obama to win between 273 and 364 electoral votes and John McCain between 128 and 174. What I am really hoping for is Obama 403, McCain 135.