Battleground State History and Conjecture

Pennsylvania
John McCain has, pretty much, pinned his hopes on Pennsylvania, there is almost no path to 270 for him without it.

Pennsylvania has voted Democrat for the last four elections, but the state's blue-collar Democrats have shown a lack of enthusiasm for Obama in the primary. McCain has fought hard to exploit this weakness but has trailed in the polls by double-digits since mid-September.

Pennsylvania voted Republican only when the entire country was doing so, except when they chose Dewey over Truman in 1948.

McCain's chances of pulling off an upset here are slim to none and, I believe, should be contested and investigated if it happens.

New Hampshire
New Hampshire chose Nixon over Kennedy in 1960 and they voted for G.W. in 2000, but they wanted him out in 2004 ~ hopefully they have learned their lesson and will favor Obama in 2008. Polls were within margin of error until early October, since then Obama has a consistent and wide lead. I am counting on New Hampshire to keep all of New England Blue.

Virginia
Virginia has only gone Democrat once since 1952, when it voted for Lyndon Johnson in 1964. It is another state that chose Nixon over Kennedy. Virginia has voted Republican without interruption in the last ten elections.

However in the "communist ~ not real" Virginia there is a large African-American population and a large suburban Washington, D.C. population. This gives Obama a real chance in Virginia, polling since early October has favored Obama by a wide, but mostly single-digit, margin.

I have a hard time counting on a state that chose Nixon over Kennedy to help put Obama in the White House.

Ohio
Ohio voted for Bush by slim margins in 2000 (+3.5%) and 2004 (+2.1%). The Ohio vote determined the outcome of 2004, if Bush had lost Ohio then Kerry would be President now.

Ohio's Democrats went for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama in the primaries, and McCain has led in Ohio polls, but Obama has opened an increasing lead since the recent economic crisis.

Unfortunately, Obama's lead has narrowed in Ohio over the last week, or so. This is, most likely, due to the exploitation of Joe the Plumber, lies about the coal industry, divisive racism and various other Rovian tactics. Is Ohio stupid enough to make their decision based on a non-plumber, turned celebrity?

Ohio has only once failed to elect the winner since the 1944 election when it chose Nixon over Kennedy in 1960. Any state that produces a Joe the Plumber icon and chose Nixon over Kennedy has me a little worried about Obama's chances in that state.

Florida
The last four elections were resolved by narrow margins, the closest being the 2000 race, when George W. Bush (with a little help from his family and friends) beat Al Gore by .1 per cent. Polls have had McCain ahead for just about the entire campaign, although Obama has a narrow lead for most of the time since the beginning of October.

Florida has only once in the last ten elections not voted for the next President. Since Florida chose George H. W. Bush over Bill Clinton in 1992, and Nixon over Kennedy in 1960, it should not surprise or worry you if Obama loses Florida to John McCain.

North Carolina
North Carolina will, most likely, be closer than Ohio and Florida. it voted against Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. But North Carolina has strong Democratic roots and voted Democratic 6 times in a row from 1944 through 1964. The only time that North Carolina has voted Democrat since 1964 is when they voted for Jimmy Carter in 1976. There is a strong progressive population in some parts, large African-American population in others and very large bible belt, fundamentalists in much of the rest of the state. Obama has a very slim lead in the polls but has a shot in North Carolina, they are not one of the states that helped put Nixon in the White house in 1960.

Indiana
Don't pin any of Obama's hopes here, apart from voting for a Democrat in 1964, when only six states voted Republican, Indiana last chose a Democrat in 1936, when only two states voted Republican. Indiana is a very Red state. Obama's chances in Indiana are that, overall, they don't seem to really like either candidate and they are right next to Obama's home state of Illinois. Their proximity to Obama's home state could allow some of the Illinois enthusiasm to spill over and affect the outcome.

McCain has consistently led in the polls, but the margin has narrowed constantly since the beginning of October.

Tennessee and Georgia
Will the Democratic population in Atlanta, Memphis, Chattanooga and Nashville be enough to out-vote rural areas to turn Tennessee and Georgia for Obama, I don't think so but I do hope so.

Arizona
Poll margins are down to an almost imperceptible lead in Arizona, I believe his slimy campaigning has shamed them. John McCain's home state might still vote him into office just to delay his return to Arizona.

Alaska
Palin started out as the most popular governor in the country, but approval has waned significantly in her home state. There are more "-gates" than can be counted and many of her remaining supporters will likely also be voting for convicted felon, Ted Stevens, for the senate. Alaska will probably not swing for Obama, but it will be a lot closer than it should have been.

Final Tally
Look for Obama to win between 273 and 364 electoral votes and John McCain between 128 and 174. What I am really hoping for is Obama 403, McCain 135.

Dole's (R-NC) Nasty Campaign is Hurting in the Polls

Kay Hagan (D-NC) is up by 5.5 points.

see latest poll results...

Donate to Kay Hagan

Dole (R-NC) Does it Again, Stoops to Depths of Hell Herself to Portray Hagan as Godless

Here's her latest ad.


read about Dole's other attacks...

Please click here now to donate to Kay Hagan. Help her fight back, show Elizabeth Dole that the public will not stand for her despicable and divisive campaign tactics.

Elizabeth Dole (R) NC Stoops Below the Lowest of the Low, Portrays Opponent as a Godless American

First of all, this is a free country, with laws about separation of church and state, that should preclude this from being an issue at all. It's even more egregious because it is absolutely and completely false. Dole shows us that she is the Godless one by stooping this low.

Dole's new ad falsely accuses Kay Hagan of being an atheist when the fact is that she is a Sunday School teacher and an elder at her Presbyterian church. It is one thing to question your opponent's record and ideology, it is beyond despicable to bald-faced lie in your attempt to do so.



This from Dole's own website:

"Kay Hagan is trying to run a campaign in North Carolina that casts her as a moderate but the money that's paying for it is coming from the left-wing fringe of political thought," said Dole Campaign Communications Director Dan McLagan. "You can tell a lot about a person by their friends and these are friends most North Carolinians would not be comfortable having over for dinner."

Hagan's campaign is being largely funded by labor unions intent on ending North Carolina's status as a right to work state, liberal trial lawyers and ultra left wing groups like MoveOn.org which is a deeply anti-military organization. Now Hagan has added anti-religion activists from Boston Massachusetts to the list.

"Kay Hagan does not represent the values of this state; she is a Trojan Horse for a long list of wacky left-wing outside groups bent on policies that would horrify most North Carolinians if they knew about it," McLagan said. "This latest revelation of support from anti-religion activists will not sit well with the 90% of state residents who identify with a specific religious faith."

Update 30, October 2008

CNN's Campbell Brown tells Dole to reclaim her dignity

Kay Hagan's response (maybe you helped to pay for this?)


Help show Dole the power of the "left-wing fringe of political thought", show her that there is a VERY "long list of wacky left-wing outside groups", don't let her ridiculous, divisive, Godless rhetoric help her win.

Please click here now to donate to Kay Hagan now (again, if you already have) to help her fight back, show Elizabeth Dole that the public will not stand for her despicable campaign tactics.

Be Very Wary of Straight Party Vote Option, Do Not Use It!

We have classified this issue as voter fraud, even though it technically isn't, because it could cause your vote to not be counted or to count exactly opposite from your actual vote.

Only 15 states have this option, if yours is one of them don't use it! There are many flaws the worst of which is that the vote can get counted for the wrong party. Straight-party voting (also called "straight-ticket" voting) means selecting a single bubble or box for a specific political party in order to register your vote for multiple candidates of that party.

In North Carolina , if you only use the straight party vote option, then you are not even casting a vote for president. 90,000 voters failed to mark their selection for President and Vice-President in NC in the 2004 election. Don't let this happen again in 2008.

DO NOT USE the straight-party option. If you want to vote for all candidates of the same party, mark each candidate individually.

more straight party vote information from VotersUnite.Org

Double check for known problems at your location before you head to the polls to cast your vote.
information on known election problems from VotersUnite.Org

Donate to VotersUnite.Org

Robin Hayes (R-NC)

Warming up a crowd in North Carolina, Republican Rep. Robin Hayes offered the diagnosis that "liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God."

read full article here

His opponent's name is Larry Kissell, website:
http://www.larrykissell.com/

Elizabeth Dole (R-NC)

North Carolina Republicans send out homophobic mailings against Democratic Senate candidate Kay Hagan.

The North Carolina Republican State Executive Committee has sent out homophobic mailers targeting Senate candidate Kay Hagan (D), who is challenging Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R).

The mailings warn that Hagan seeks to advance a "radical homosexual agenda" that includes legalizing gay marriage, removing "Under God" from the Pledge of Allegiance, and forcing the Boy Scouts to accept gay and atheist troop leaders.



Donate to opponent: Kay Hagan
Website: http://www.kayhagan.com/